The power of the Russian spirit: they went unarmed on machine guns and won

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In Russia, it is used by the most of traders. We can even state that knowledge of at least basics of technical analysis is a kind of "entrance ticket" to the market: This is not a place for anybody without this. Being one of the predicting methods of stock market pricing dynamics, the technical analysis has a large amount of disadvantages that cast some doubt on its practical applicability. NB: I have been using technical analysis since I have tried and tested a huge amount of indicators on real data during this period.

The conclusion is not encouraging: In many cases, the market behavior is opposite to all predictions. There how to make money for Tsarikhin yourself so many studies and published works on this topic that I wouldn't like to repeat them here. The followers of technical analysis ought this to the following: "Technical analysis requires high analytical qualification. Being used properly, it helps to achieve really good results.

So the matter is not in any problems in technical analysis itself.

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The problem is in its proper use". However, in my opinion, the problem is rooted in that technical analysis as a method of analyzing and predicting the market pricing dynamics has some inherent defects located in its fundamental postulates and in its ideology itself.

NB: All errors are rooted in technical analysts' aspiration to analyze the chart but not the market. It recurs to me the following ancient Chinese parable: — Can one talk riddles to people? Baigun asked Confucius, but the latter said nothing.

Baigun asked. However, cook Yi Ya tasted it and distinguished which is which. However, does the speaker himself understand the meaning of words? Those who understand the meaning of words won't speak in words. Fisher's clothes gets wet, hunter's feet get tired, but not for pleasure. Since true words are without wording, a true act is inactivity. After all, everything the perfunctory persons are arguing about is so insignificant! Having got no change out of the Master, Baigun died in the bath.

The market talks riddles with people. A chart is words, wet clothes, sore feet.

The power of the Russian spirit: they went unarmed on machine guns and won 22 September How often have you heard the words "forgotten feat"? What impression did they make? It would seem that in our days - everything, or almost everything about the Great Patriotic War should be known.

We need to get to the bottom - how many quails did the hunter get down, how many fish did the fisher hook? The list of chartists "died in the bath" will probably be rather long.

Having found an object in the chart, an analyst hastens to exclaim: "The market turns its direction since I see the object in the chart! However, one should act differently. Having observed something in the chart, one has to ask him or herself: "What process happening in the market caused appearance of this graphical object in the chart? Will this process result in a turn or just in some correction? Mistake 1 The same indicators are used to analyze very different markets: for instance, stock market and bond market, Forex and commodity market.

In some cases, this approach is authorized by the situation: A "false bottom" is a "false bottom" everywhere. However, it is frequently not the case.

Trading: Problems of Technical Analysis Revisited

This results in errors. The above-mentioned markets differ from each other through not only morphology and trading particularities, but also even through their It is fair to say that this difference can be noticed by professionals only. It looks the same for newbies. Below are some charts illustrating my point. Classical Russian companies are shown in Fig. The following is typical for a chart of the secondary market: short rollbacks when the price grows and long ones when it falls, relatively small range of prices in bands, sometimes rather long periods of quiet after growth.

Market ups and downs occur rather rarely, this usually takes place when the market goes from falling to growth. Alternation of active movements periods with rollbacks and classical trend fragments. Stock market usually grows slowly and falls rapidly. In Fig. The following is typical for them: explicit trend structure, sudden hitches for example, in Fig.

The periods of growth and falling are approximately of the same length in a commodity market; it even happens so that it, unlike the stock market, grows fast and falls slowly see Fig. I consider every market type to have its own typical portrait. This idea needs to be developed. There are still preliminary considerations. Futures for Brent Oil. Petroleum Futures.

Natural Gas. Nickel Cash.

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Unfortunately, the idea has not been developed in technical analysis. I may be mistaken, of course. It would be interesting to know about other specialists' opinions: Have they ever come across any works on technical analysis where the matter of different chart shapes for different markets is considered? FOREX stands apart here.

NB: I think that one of the ways for the technical analysis to develop must be differentiation by types of markets under research. Mistake 2 Researchers cannot understand the nature of the market. Some of them consider this to be a natural, not an artificially created object. This complex of difficulties and errors caused a huge amount of incorrect prediction techniques. Researchers tried to find a perfect ordering where it does not exist at all and cannot exist. For example, Elliot Waves and Fibonacci Sequence.

On the other hand, some of them tried to apply to the market analysis the trading for beginners from scratch theory and the fractal geometry, both not relating to the market in any way since they describe absolutely different objects.

Problems of Technical Analysis Revisited

Trading Chaos, page 64 — the logical fallacy of inference is present: sometimes even very different systems produce outwardly similar appearances we can remember about protective horning and spines in animals: these means of protection occurred in both dinosaurs and mammals at different times, with the interval of dozens of millions of years.

In order not to overcharge my reasoning, I put my thoughts about Elliot Wave Theory, Fibonacci numbers, and fractal geometry in the end of my article, in the "Particularities" section. Analysts use terms, such as "energy", "bull power", "bear power" and others, to describe markets. The market, for such analysts, can "fall", "jump back", "move by inertia", it can be "pushed", "bucked up" and "braked".

MACD, for example, "… directs the way like car headlamps" A.

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We can also quote Minimum deposits of binary options Williams: "Energy always follows the path of least effort. The market resembles a river… Since a river flows down, its behavior is determined by the choice of the path of least effort. He argued in favor of his idea as follows. Parrots, he said, eat hemp and can live up to years. If a human eats hemp, he or she will live years, too.

NB: A theory must be developed that would describe markets stock, commodity, forex as they are, with all their peculiarities that cannot be reduced to purely natural, psychological or financial laws.

It must be admitted that any organized stock market is a sophisticated system that exists and develops under its own laws. Lack of clarity over the real nature and morphology of stock markets produced difficulties in defining of reasons for which the market grows or falls. Apart from mysterious "bull powers", "bear powers" and "potential market energy", it is often discussed about "crowd emotions" and "mass psychological structuring".

My opinion about this topic can also be read at the end of this article. If the market nature is considered more closely, one may find out much interesting. A certain set of factors is effective for every market type.

The power of the Russian spirit: they went unarmed on machine guns and won

For second stock market, it is flow of capital. Generally, this topic needs a special research. I have done something in this field, but I consider it at the end of the article.

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The second and the third mistakes produced difficulties with proper interpretation of volume. Indeed, if we have not yet caught the point about the nature of market processes reflected in charts, what can we say about any proper interpretation of volume? Books on technical analysis contain everything but the proper interpretation of volume.

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Authors usually don't go further than to state something like "volume direction confirms the trend" or "volume changes precede price changes" Joseph Granville. Indicators created on the volume basis are just terrible. By the way, as to the latter indicator: It is not clear at all what is the sense of multiplying volume by price difference.

My school maths teacher said that lamps multiplied by oranges make something like "loranges", not any real things.

Problems of Technical Analysis Revisited - MQL4 Articles

This is exactly the case. We can solve a simple problem. Dick, Harry and Tom have two apples each. How many apples do they have together? It can be easily understood the sense of multiplying of the amount of children by the amount of apples.

However, there are other problems that are quite different.

  1. Fundamentally, a market is where things are exchanged at an agreed read accepted value.
  2. Она достаточно хорошо знала Танкадо и знала, что он боготворил простоту.
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  4. Сьюзан ждала, вглядываясь во тьму и надеясь, что Стратмор если и пострадал, то не сильно.

How much does one kilo of nails if hearts are trump? Or: What will we get if we multiply price difference by volume? Mistake 3 Taking undue freedoms with time. For some reason, technical analysts skip weekends and public holidays when drawing charts. As a result of such loose time treatment, the charts are often distorted. Some at least disputable methods occur, too. Tic-tac-toe-like ones, for example. The technique to construct angles in the chart for example, Gann's Angles should be considered specifically.

Tangent of this angle must be one, mustn't it? It means, say, that one ruble corresponds with one day. If my ruble is equal to two days, the angle will be This is arctg 0. This example shows us that if time scale increases 2 times, the angle will decrease 1. We will observe the same effect if we increase price scale 2 times. The angle will then be equal to Gann's Angles in Different Scaling.

Neglecting the time matters may also lead to that researchers forget at all about in what coordinates they operate - from this point of view, the following citation from A. Elder's Study Guide for Trading for a Living is typical: "There are several techniques for projecting how far a breakout is likely to go.

Measure the height of a rectangle and project it from the broken wall in the direction of the breakout. This is the minimum target. The maximum target is obtained by taking the length of the rectangle and projecting it vertically ifrom the broken wall in the direction how to make money for Tsarikhin yourself the breakout italics mine — K. Please note the phrase in italics — it's a full absurd.

The power of the Russian spirit: they went unarmed on machine guns and won

The length of a rectangle in the chart is measured in time terms days, weeksso plotting these values on the price axis is nonsense.

In order to visualize the mistake made by the author of that recommendation, let's look at Fig. Prediction of the maximal price level when breached from the rectangle according to Elder.

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In the second case, the maximal predicted level turns to be two times higher whereas we took the same rectangle. Either, the reviewed technique does not answer the question why it is the maximal price level that must be found in that place, not in another. NB: To eliminate such errors, it is necessary to show time in the chart properly.

Yeliseev is mathematician by training see at www.

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He invented his own, original system of graphical analysis of stock markets. If all "normal" analysts place price movement in horizontal coordinates plotting time on X-line and price on Y-line, Mr Yeliseev uses a circular graph with the only one axis. His time circles and price is how to make money for Tsarikhin yourself on the axis see Fig. Price chart in V. I, Yeliseev's coordinates The circle is divided into twelve sectors for one month each.

The price makes complete revolution within the year — well, everything turns full circle. The price chart resembles the spiral.

Contact Us Demand index technical analysis play metatrader is hard One thing that most traders would be well advised to take into account: technical analysis is a great way to look at the demand index technical analysis play metatrader is hard and to predict the trends, but it is simply a tool and not the only form of analysis that a trader can use. The modern interpretation of trading volume in the second stock market is, in terms of technical analysis, very general by nature, intrinsically erroneous and cannot really assist an analyst. Part of knowing whether a trend will continue comes down to judging just how much gusto lies behind the.

This is just one example of nonstandard approach, nothing else. I hesitate to make the flat assertion that this method is correct. Talking about time makes me recall one more Achilles' heel of technical analysis: It is the time parameter in indicators. Indeed, let's imagine that we construct an average.